Trump's Sun Belt surge warns of a Rust Belt electoral danger

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

59% : The Rust Belt map Trump drew in 2016 is still the one that leads to victory.
58% : Even among whites without college degrees -- a core component of Trump's base -- Biden made gains relative to Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016, raising the Democrat share of non-college whites from 28% to 33%.
49% : But they didn't stay there: The Rust Belt states that made Trump president in 2016 sent Joe Biden to the White House in 2020.
46% : That second Trump election also redrew the map, this time forfeiting two Sun Belt states that had been Republican for decades, Arizona and Georgia, to the Democrat.Which map will Trump draw this time?Polls show him ahead in the Sun Belt and Rust Belt alike, and indications that black and Hispanic voters are trending Trump's way have Republicans giddy.
46% : Trump is up five points in Arizona according to a CBS News poll released Sunday.
38% : Trump should do everything he can to win the Sun Belt, and black and Hispanic voters, away from Biden.
34% : Trump has a long way to go before he can equal Biden with black voters, but for the incumbent to lose any support with a constituency that voted 92% for him in 2020 is a fire alarm.
34% : The crackup of the Democratic coalition doesn't automatically put Trump back in the White House, however.
30% : Even more encouraging, the same NYT/Siena survey showed Trump up 13 points over Biden in Nevada, a state Republicans haven't won in a presidential contest since 2004.
24% : Black and Latino voters are defecting from Biden in droves, according to repeated rounds of NYT/Siena polling, which most recently found Trump virtually even with the Democrat among Hispanics.
23% : After four dour years of continual crises abroad and inflation at home, does sunshine now remind voters of Trump?Two of Biden's weaknesses are a special source of the Republican's Sun Belt strength.
22% : Trump would also have to flip at least one more state.
9% : Trump lost ground with whites nationwide in 2020, a fact that's drawn less attention than Biden's troubles with blacks and Latinos.

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