Donald Trump holds two swing state leads before debate, poll shows

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

74% : Harris and Trump, meanwhile, will face each other for their first debate Tuesday evening in Philadelphia hosted by ABC News.
57% : Per RealClear Polling's averages, as of Monday afternoon, Trump is slightly ahead of Harris in Arizona by 1.6 points (48.4 to 46.8 percent) and in North Carolina by just 0.7 points (47.9 to 47.2 percent).
52% : The survey, conducted by the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research USA between September 5 and 6, found that Trump, the GOP's presidential nominee, was leading Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, in Georgia by 2 points (47 to 45 percent) and North Carolina by 1 point (48 to 47 percent).
49% : Polling analyst Nate Silver, who is the founder of ABC News' poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, said on Sunday in his latest Silver Bulletinupdate that recent polling shows that the momentum has started to shift from Harris to Trump.
45% : That average is based on polling responses where third-party candidates are also included on the ballot, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has dropped out of the 2024 race and endorsed Trump.
44% : The polling site FiveThirtyEight also finds that Harris is leading Trump among national polling (47.2 to 44.4 percent), but some experts have warned that Trump may be under-polling similar to his campaigns in 2016 and 2020, when preliminary polls did not accurately estimate the former president's support come Election Day.
41% : According to the pollster, Trump is set to win Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, while Harris is set to narrowly win Michigan and Wisconsin.
17% : A survey by Patriot Polling conducted between September 1 and 3 found that Harris and Trump are in a "dead heat" across the seven swing states that Biden flipped by a narrow margin during the 2020 election.
8% : However, polling shows Trump and Harris locked in a neck-and-neck race to the White House.

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