CNN data guru declares Trump will win White House if he outperforms current polling by one point

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

57% : He even predicted that "by the middle of September" Trump could be "ahead in all the Sun Belt states."
43% : According to the network's aggregate polling, Harris is currently ahead of Trump by only an average of six-tenths of a point, which is closer than the final nine-tenths of a point lead President Biden had over Trump among those states in the last election.
40% : However, when Enten simulated what would happen if Trump outperformed current polling by "one percentage point," it revealed the former president winning.
37% : CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said that the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is so close that if Trump outperforms current polling by one point, he will win the White House.
30% : If Trump outperforms his current polls by just a single point, you take that Kamala Harris win and - look at this - Donald Trump gets 287 electoral votes," he said, comparing it to Harris' 251 votes in this scenario.
25% : He said that Harris' lead over Trump in swing states is "well within the margin of error" and it's not conclusive that she is actually ahead.
9% : Halperin added the numbers are a "scary place" for Harris to be in just a couple of months ahead of the November election, especially if Trump gains momentum.

*Our bias meter rating uses data science including sentiment analysis, machine learning and our proprietary algorithm for determining biases in news articles. Bias scores are on a scale of -100% to 100% with higher negative scores being more liberal and higher positive scores being more conservative, and 0% being neutral. The rating is an independent analysis and is not affiliated nor sponsored by the news source or any other organization.