Salon Article Rating

Nate Silver slammed over Trump election model -- but forecasters "all saying roughly the same thing"

Sep 16, 2024 View Original Article
  • Bias Rating

    10% Center

  • Reliability

    90% ReliableExcellent

  • Policy Leaning

    10% Center

  • Politician Portrayal

    -11% Negative

Bias Score Analysis

The A.I. bias rating includes policy and politician portrayal leanings based on the author’s tone found in the article using machine learning. Bias scores are on a scale of -100% to 100% with higher negative scores being more liberal and higher positive scores being more conservative, and 0% being neutral.

Sentiments

Overall Sentiment

76% Positive

  •   Liberal
  •   Conservative
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Bias Meter

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

65% : Silver's model also gives Trump a better chance of winning when compared to peer forecasts.
61% : In other words, even though Silver's forecast might give Trump a 60% chance to win and another forecast might give Harris a 55% chance to win, those forecasts are essentially in agreement in terms of the bigger picture -- both candidates have a good chance of winning.
58% : Last week, for instance, his forecast gave Trump a 64% chance of winning the Electoral College while giving Vice President Kamala Harris just a 35% chance of victory, even while the same forecast saw Harris as more likely to win the popular vote and his polling averages had her leading in enough swing states to take the election.
37% : Trump himself said that Silver had him leading and "up by a lot," which isn't true if a reader looks at Silver's polling average.
36% : Some forecasters don't like to use Trafalgar," Tranter said, referring to a pollster that frequently has move favorable numbers for Trump than others.
34% : For instance, FiveThirtyEight, the handicapping outlet Silver founded in 2008 and left earlier this year, seems to see a more heated contest unfolding, giving Harris a 56% chance of winning and Trump a 43% chance.
31% : Silver's forecast has drawn significant criticism for giving Trump a better chance of winning than other forecasters.
27% : He's also received praise from Trump himself, which probably hasn't helped the perception that his forecast is biased toward Republicans, despite Silver recently telling the "Risky Business" podcast that he plans to vote for Harris.

*Our bias meter rating uses data science including sentiment analysis, machine learning and our proprietary algorithm for determining biases in news articles. Bias scores are on a scale of -100% to 100% with higher negative scores being more liberal and higher positive scores being more conservative, and 0% being neutral. The rating is an independent analysis and is not affiliated nor sponsored by the news source or any other organization.

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