Final Polls Give an Edge to Trump but They Are Only Polls

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

70% : Trump is probably leading by 3 in real life.
70% : RCP was very accurate in 2024, and I think Trump has the advantage.
66% : The final RCP average showed Clinton leading by 3.4, but Trump eked out a 0.3-point win.
66% : The present average has Trump leading by 0.3 at RCP and Kamala ahead by 0.1 at 538.
66% : If history is a guide, Trump will win Wisconsin by around 5 points.
65% : Past performance indicates Trump will do about 3 points better in Michigan than the final averages.
63% : The bottom line is that Trump is at the best place a Republican candidate has been in national polls since George Bush's 2004 reelection campaign.
62% : The final count gave Biden a 4.5-point victory, but Trump still overperformed the polls by about 3 points.
62% : In 2016, RCP had Trump down by 1.9 points in its final poll average, and Trump won by 0.7 points.
61% : GeorgiaBoth 538 and RCP have Trump leading in Georgia by 1.8 and 2.3, respectively.
60% : All the on-the-ground reports and voting data indicate that Trump will win the state.
59% : The 2020 campaign had Biden leading Trump in the final polls by 8.4 points in the 538 average and 7.2 points in the RCP average.
58% : Another by CNN shows Trump tied nationally but Harris with solid leads in two of the three states that will probably decide the election.
58% : In 2016, Trump led the final RCP average by 4.8 points, carrying the state by 5.1.
58% : Currently, Trump leads the 538 average for Georgia by 1.8 points and the RCP average by 2.3.
57% : RCP has Trump leading by 0.5, and 538 has him up by 0.4.
50% : Should 2024 resemble the 2020 election, this is how it plays out: Trump runs the table.
50% : No matter how you cut it, polling, which has historically been Democrat-friendly, says Trump is the odds-on favorite to win.
47% : Pennsylvania is also perceived as the easiest of the three Rust Belt swing states -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- for Trump to win.
46% : In 2020, Trump was down by 1.2 points in the 538 average and led the RCP average by one point.
46% : Given the history, this is probably pretty close to how things will end up, even if I think Trump will go much better than a 2-point win; see Latest Georgia Poll Spells Doom!
46% : If the 2024 election looks like 2016, this is how Trump will do.
44% : Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls: Who is ahead?
43% : It boggles the mind to try to comprehend how Trump is tied nationally, tied in Pennsylvania, and down by five in Wisconsin and Michigan.
42% : A new Quinnipiac Poll, a poll that is usually Democrat-friendly though not as slavishly so as Morning Consult, Has Trump moving ahead in Pennsylvania and nationally.
38% : If, as expected, Georgia and North Carolina go Red next Tuesday and there are no unexpected losses, a win in Pennsylvania would put Trump back in the White House.
35% : Trump overperformed by 1.1 points.
24% : In 2016, Trump lost the state by 2.4 points despite the RCP average having him up by 0.8.
21% : Trump lost by 2.8 points.
11% : In 2020, both major poll averages showed Trump behind; 538 by 4.7 points and RCP by 1.2 points, and Trump lost the state by 1.2 points.

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