Ruchir Sharma: top 10 trends for 2025

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

68% : Ironically, continuing faith in "American exceptionalism" assumes that under Trump the world will see more of the same trends it saw under Joe Biden: US dominance of the global economy and markets, led by its big-cap tech businesses.
62% : Buzz about "American exceptionalism" overlooks the artificial boost the US is getting from state support.
61% : The world is an increasingly fragmented and complex place, but everyone I meet appears to be obsessed with just one person: Donald Trump.
57% : After 25 years of talks, last month representatives of 31 nations agreed on plans for the world's largest trade union, linking the EU with the Mercosur group in Latin America.
57% : However, in the growing body of GLP-1 research, not all the news is so sunny.
56% : Following the pandemic, government spending rose sharply as a share of GDP.
50% : Disciplined government spending helps explain why credit rating agencies are now more sanguine on developing nations, with upgrades outnumbering downgrades by margins not seen in years, including positive turns on recent basket cases like Argentina and Turkey.
50% : Spooked by America's use of sanctions to cut off rivals from the dollar-based international finance system, many countries are making deals to promote trade with regional neighbours, or without the dollar.
45% : Trump constantly threatened to undermine China with tariffs and yet, during his first term, the best-performing major market in the world was China, outpacing even the US.
45% : Under Trump, cuts in taxes and regulations will send the US economy and market to new heights, or so the conventional wisdom goes.
42% : All projections about the coming year assume Trump will dictate global economic and market trends.
40% : In recent years global trade has shifted, and today its biggest channels are within the developing world.
38% : The world is not unipolar and does not revolve around one personality, not even one as big as Trump's.
30% : Investors were braced for a negative shock when Trump came to power in 2017, but that year turned out to be one of the least volatile for US stocks ever.
25% : If past is prelude, Trump 2.0 will not play out as most investors expect.

*Our bias meter rating uses data science including sentiment analysis, machine learning and our proprietary algorithm for determining biases in news articles. Bias scores are on a scale of -100% to 100% with higher negative scores being more liberal and higher positive scores being more conservative, and 0% being neutral. The rating is an independent analysis and is not affiliated nor sponsored by the news source or any other organization.