Iran rethinks confrontation with Donald Trump

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

55% : Trump has delegated his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to explore whether diplomatic accommodation with Iran is possible, saying last week that "it would really be nice if [tensions over Iran's nuclear programme] could be worked out".
44% : But Trump also displayed his unpredictability.
35% : As that date nears, a risk for Iran is that western powers trigger the so-called snapback process that would lead to the reimposition of UN sanctions and further international isolation if there is no alternative deal.
34% : "The expectation is that Trump, who in his first term abandoned the 2015 nuclear deal Tehran signed with world powers and ramped up sanctions in a "maximum pressure" campaign, will return to his hardline policies.
33% : Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East programme at Chatham House, said Tehran needed to entice Trump into a deal quickly if it was to avoid more US "maximum pressure" and the threat of further Israeli strikes.
28% : "But they estimate that there are constraints on Trump if he doesn't pursue the diplomatic path, and that the risks are quite high for a military conflict that the US cannot then control.
24% : Some experts said the blows to the axis, which have diminished Iran's regional influence, could mean Tehran would be more willing to strike a deal with Trump to seek security guarantees that it would not be attacked by Israel.
22% : "When Trump implemented his "maximum pressure" strategy against Iran during his first term, Iranian forces were blamed for sabotage attacks on tankers in the Gulf and a missile and drone strike in 2019 on Saudi oil infrastructure.
19% : With this in mind, analysts say Iran can ill-afford to antagonise Trump and risk more military conflict with Israel and even the US.

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