Lord Ashcroft: My latest poll finds Trump and Biden neck and neck in the race for the White House - but a generic Democrat ahead | Conservative Home

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65% : In the Biden-Trump match-up, Trump led among men (by 7 points), 18-24s (6), 25-34s (8), white voters (10) and Hispanic voters (1).
60% : When we asked how people would vote in the presidential election in various scenarios, we found Trump and Biden tied on 40 per cent among registered voters - but Biden ahead of Haley by 11 points, and "a Democrat other than Joe Biden" ahead of both Trump (by 6 points) and Haley (by 15 points).
58% : Some also felt the administration was too ready to give away money - including student debt cancellation, which was resented by people who had saved and paid for their own or their children's college education - and that it had moved sharply to the left having campaigned on the moderate centre ground.
58% : Biden led among women (by eight points), 45-54s (6), those aged 65+ (6), black voters (33, but with Trump on 22 per cent), and those with a bachelor's (10) and postgraduate degrees (22).
56% : Specific hopes for the Biden presidency had included a more unifying approach, cancelling student debt, and voting rights reform, which some felt had been delivered in part.
54% : "Those inclined to support Trump expected that in a second term he would close the border, finish the wall, strengthen the economy, make the US more independent in terms of energy, and manufacturing and extricate America from foreign wars.
52% : Trump had a clear lead over Biden on immigration and the border (23 points), defence and national security (13 points), the economy and jobs (12), taxes (11), crime (11), and the cost of living (10).
52% : Trump was thought the most likely victor by all age groups and by white and Hispanic voters - though black voters expected a Biden victory by 37 per cent to 25 per cent.
50% : A few named specific achievements, including greater civility, a stabilising economy, support for Ukraine and Israel, partial cancelling of student debt, and support for striking car workers.
49% : For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com.As Donald Trump closes in on the Republican nomination, my latest polling from the US finds him neck and neck with Joe Biden - and reveals much about how the presidential race is shaping up.
45% : "The primary seasonWhen we asked likely Republican primary voters how they would vote when the contest came to their state, we found Trump ahead of Nikki Haley by 82 per cent to 14 per cent.
43% : This was reflected in our focus groups, in which voters of all political backgrounds were worried about the economy, the cost of living, border control, crime, political and social division, racial tension, and global instability.
43% : Asked who they expected to be sworn in as president on inauguration day, 38 per cent of Americans named Trump and 28 per cent named Biden.
40% : Some thought she was more likely to attract moderates and independents than Trump.
38% : Those who voted for Biden in 2020 but strongly disapproved of his performance as president said would vote for Trump over Biden by 31 per cent to 14 per cent, but more than half said either that they would vote for another candidate (35 per cent) or didn't know or would not vote (20 per cent).
37% : Only just over a quarter (26 per cent) of voters thought the legal proceedings against Trump made him less likely to win the presidential election, down eight points since our previous survey in November 2023; 28 per cent thought they would make no difference to the outcome, and three in ten (including 57 per cent of his 2020 voters) thought the proceedings made him more likely to win.
37% : On every issue, Trump achieved a higher score than the generic Republican, while Biden achieved an equal or lower score than the generic Democrat.
32% : Some of those leaning towards Trump accepted that there could be some substance to the legal cases against him, just as some opponents accepted that the motivation to bring charges against him was probably partly political.
30% : In a Biden vs Trump election, 50 per cent of registered voters said they would be 10/10 motivated to turn out, including 52 per cent of 2020 Biden voters and 57 per cent of 2020 Trump voters.
28% : Part of the upshot of all this is that Americans say they Biden's performance by 58 per cent to 37 per cent - worse numbers than Trump faced at the same stage of his presidency.
28% : The 10/10 proportion falls only slightly to 48 per cent in a contest between Trump and a Democrat other than Biden, but drops to 37 per cent in the event of a match-up between Biden and Haley.
27% : Those in our focus groups who had voted for Biden in 2020 usually said they had done so with fairly low expectations, and often simply as a means of removing Trump.
26% : However, 2020 Biden voters who only somewhat disapproved of his performance backed Biden over Trump by 47 per cent to eight per cent, with 24 per cent saying they would vote for another candidate and 21 per cent saying they didn't know or would not vote.
25% : The presidential electionWe asked half our sample whether Biden or Trump would do a better job on a range of issues.

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