Can Trump win the election? Here are his possible paths to victory.

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

75% : Trump repeats his 2016 victoryReturn to menuFinally, Trump's third most likely path to victory is a repeat of how he won in 2016.
72% : The good news for Trump is that it isn't hard to imagine this scenario.
59% : Overall, though, the polls have been pretty stable, consistently showing the race as a toss-up or that Harris and Trump are both equally likely to win the presidency.
53% : Trump wins the Sun Belt -- and one Rust Belt stateReturn to menuTrump's second most likely path goes through the Sun Belt and one Rust Belt state that isn't Pennsylvania -- if he wins Pennsylvania, it's essentially a repeat of the first scenario.
52% : Trump lost Arizona and Georgia in 2020, but is currently favored in the Sun Belt states he'd need to win to repeat his 2016 victory.
51% : In 2016, Trump cracked the "blue wall," flipping all three Rust Belt states red for the first time in decades.
47% : Trump is ahead in Georgia by two points, and narrowly leads North Carolina by less than one point, which is the same margin by which Harris leads in Pennsylvania.
46% : Trump wins exactly 270 electoral votesReturn to menuTrump and Harris have a bare-bones path to victory, requiring only 270 electoral votes, the minimum necessary to win.
42% : To win Pennsylvania, Trump will need to either win back voters he lost in the Philadelphia suburbs in 2020 or continue to improve his margins in the city of Philadelphia along with the more rural parts of the state.
39% : Polling errors have recently been correlated, so if Trump picks up one of these states, he stands a good chance of winning all three, as they share similar demographics.
35% : As for the Sun Belt, there wasn't really a question of whether Trump would win it -- excluding Nevada -- in 2016.
34% : As for Michigan, Trump won it in 2016, and Democrats' loss of support among Arab Americans and young voters over Israel's war in Gaza could be enough to put the state in Trump's column this year.
26% : Check out how Harris and Trump stack up according to The Washington Post's presidential polling averages of seven battleground states.
23% : 1/5End of carouselNorth Carolina and Pennsylvania are both well within the range of a normal-sized polling error (3.5 points), but both states have been inching in Trump's direction, and in Pennsylvania, some recent, high quality polls show Trump narrowly ahead.
19% : Spoiler alert: Not much has changed for either Harris or Trump.
18% : But unlike Harris, Trump must win states in the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina) to pull this off.

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