Chuck Todd: The 2024 election careens into its final, uncertain days

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

74% : If so, Trump may win fairly comfortably.
64% : It has been fascinating watching Trump overperform all of the Republican Senate candidates.
59% : Conversely, if Trump does end up overperforming with male voters of color, as polling has indicated, that should give him a particular boost to win the Sun Belt battlegrounds of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
58% : Because Trump wanted to do it.
52% : Another endgame scenario that seems quite plausible to me: Harris wins North Carolina but Trump wins Pennsylvania.
46% : It would mean a lot of voters waited until the very last minute to decide to vote and to cast their votes for Trump.
44% : If you're a Republican who doesn't like Trump but is also skeptical of Harris' more progressive tendencies, I'm guessing you're waiting and waiting and waiting until the very last minute to decide how to vote.
42% : Because voters don't believe Trump is as strident on abortion as the rest of the party.
40% : In the previous two elections, Trump outperformed his polling numbers, leading many of us to believe we simply weren't polling the electorate correctly.
40% : But if the polls have overcorrected on Trump, Harris may win a victory that looks a lot more like Obama 2012 than anything else we've seen this century.
40% : With Harris putting such a focus on Nikki Haley voters from the GOP primaries -- i.e., Republicans who don't like Trump -- it's clear her campaign sees these GOP voters as key to her winning the presidency.
38% : Above all else, the fact that Trump ended up doing this rally indicates that the people around him on the campaign don't know how to tell him no.
33% : Toss in his various efforts to push back against six-week bans at the state level (at least rhetorically) and it has given Trump some ability to keep abortion-rights-concerned Republicans with him, even if they decide they will vote for Senate Democrats as a bulwark against a total ban.
33% : If Trump ends up losing a close election, there will be outsized attention on his decision to massage his own ego by holding a raucous rally at Madison Square Garden.
30% : Of course, how a campaign ends can have an outsized impact, as well, and there's no question that Trump is the one who appears to be closing poorly.
29% : For instance, there's been this assumption that the polls were off in 2016 and 2020 because Trump ended up overperforming.
25% : If either Harris underwhelms with white women or Trump underwhelms with men of color, it could hand the other one a clean sweep of the battlegrounds.
25% : The irony is that for Trump, the oldest video of him discussing abortion has him sounding like a longtime supporter of abortion rights, though there is also plenty of video of him celebrating the end of Roe v. Wade.
8% : One theory about this election I've been pondering is whether it is a reverse 2016 -- with Trump as Hillary Clinton in this scenario.

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