Election Tilts Toward Trump as Suspicions Grow That Some Polls May Be Masking True Size of His Lead - The Minnesota Sun

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66% : An NBC News/Telemundo survey released last month, for instance, showed Harris with 54% support among Hispanic voters, compared to 40% who backed Trump.
61% : Among Jewish voters, moreover, Trump earned 50% support among New York Jewish voters while 49% backed Harris in an August Siena Research Institute survey.
58% : ""Two universes"Compared to his prior elections, Trump is in a far more favorable position at this stage in the race.
57% : The campaign released its own internal polling in a Thursday memo, showing Trump winning all seven of the key battleground states it tracked.
55% : "Florida has high concentrations of seniors and Latinos and if Trump is winning those groups he is sweeping Pa.,Nv and Az.
54% : Harris currently leads Trump by 2.0% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, with 49.1% support to his 47.1%.
52% : That figure includes a Rasmussen Reports survey showing Trump with a two-point lead, a Reuters/Ipsos survey showing Harris up two, a Morning Consult poll with Harris up five, a Yahoo News poll with the race tied, and a number of other surveys.
51% : Where things standDominating headlines this week was a bombshell Quinnipiac University survey, which is typically favorable to Democrats, that showed Trump leading by 2% in Wisconsin and 3% in Michigan.
51% : Those figures mark a 32% swing in one of the state's largest voting blocs toward Trump.
51% : Every group moving towards TrumpThe seeming momentum for Trump in battlegrounds and with Democratic constituencies comes as other data shows Trump gaining significant ground with Jewish voters, Latino voters, and black voters.
49% : Biden had led Trump with that group before leaving the race.
48% : Polling averages currently show Trump poised to take Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona.
41% : But pollsters have pointed to an apparent disconnect between state and national level polls, with state-level surveys increasingly shifting toward Trump while Harris seemingly holds steady at the national level.
36% : Far from an outlier, other surveys have followed those results, showing Trump either tied or leading Harris in those battlegrounds.
33% : Should such results hold, Trump would handily carry the Electoral College, barring major upsets.
31% : Betting markets have also shifted decidedly in favor of Trump.
14% : Harvard CAPS/Harris poll director Mark Penn, for instance, highlighted what he called a "polling paradox," noting that "[t]he Times/Siena poll shows Harris up 3 nationally (within their margin of error) but losing to Trump by 14 in Florida.
12% : It's an absolute catastrophe for her," Baris wrote, in response to Mason-Dixon/Telemundo data showing Harris leading Trump among California Hispanics 55% to 35%.
7% : 2) Ridiculous leads for Harris larger than Obama that are never going to happen," posted Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris in response to an Emerson College poll showing Trump ahead in Pennsylvania.

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