The Guardian Article Rating

Here is what our final polling data says about the US presidential election | John Zogby

Nov 05, 2024 View Original Article
  • Bias Rating

    50% Medium Conservative

  • Reliability

    35% ReliableFair

  • Policy Leaning

    50% Medium Conservative

  • Politician Portrayal

    9% Positive

Bias Score Analysis

The A.I. bias rating includes policy and politician portrayal leanings based on the author’s tone found in the article using machine learning. Bias scores are on a scale of -100% to 100% with higher negative scores being more liberal and higher positive scores being more conservative, and 0% being neutral.

Sentiments

Overall Sentiment

23% Positive

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  •   Conservative
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Bias Meter

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

63% : Harris has the backing of 57% of those with college degrees, compared with 39% for Trump.
59% : In 2020, Biden won the same group by 12 points (he received 55% of their vote, while Trump received 43%).
59% : That was 50% for Biden and 48% for Trump last time.
55% : Biden won both in 2020: he won 60% of votes in cities (while Trump only got 38% of the vote in cities), but barely scraped by in suburbs, where only 50% voted for him, compared with 48% voting for Trump.
48% : Women back Harris by 12 points, with 55% of women supporting her to 43% supporting Trump (Biden won 57% of women, while Trump only received 42% of the women's vote).
43% : That puts her 19 points ahead with moderates than Trump, who polls at 37.
41% : Harris did, as was suggested throughout the year's polling, underperform in our poll among Black voters (73% said they would vote for her, and 19% said Trump) and
40% : For those backing Trump, the top are the economy/inflation (68%), immigration (61%), keeping the US out of war (15%) and crime (14%).
36% : Trump leads among those without degrees (50% of voters without college degrees back him, compared with 44% backing Harris).
33% : There is also a substantial "marriage gap": Trump won married voters by four points - not as big as in 2020 (seven points), but Harris won among non-married people by eight points (51%-43%), not as much as Joe Biden's 18-point victory, but still enough to see that marital status is a key to how people vote.
31% : Harris not only leads in cities (53% of city-dwellers back her, compared with 43% backing Trump) but also in the suburbs (she was backed by 50% of the suburban voters polled, compared with 44% backing Trump) -
22% : For one, Harris appears to have underperformed with 18- to 29-year-olds nationally; in contrast Trump is leading among them, capturing 47% of the vote, while Harris polls at 45%.
22% : Harris leads among voters who identify as independents by 13 points (51% of independents polled say they will vote for her, compared with just 38% saying they will vote for Trump), about the same as Biden, who received 54% of independent votes, compared with Trump getting 41% of their vote in 2020.
19% : Harris is down considerably among Catholics (43% back her, compared with 55% backing Trump) and Protestants (36% back her, compared with 59% backing Trump), but scores well among those with no religious affiliation and with atheists.
14% : Trump stayed with his dark and isolationist theme, focusing on rallying his base first, then hoping to pick up more moderate independents who feel that the Biden-Harris team have led the US down the wrong path.

*Our bias meter rating uses data science including sentiment analysis, machine learning and our proprietary algorithm for determining biases in news articles. Bias scores are on a scale of -100% to 100% with higher negative scores being more liberal and higher positive scores being more conservative, and 0% being neutral. The rating is an independent analysis and is not affiliated nor sponsored by the news source or any other organization.

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