Here's the key to reading the tight polls and predicting a Trump win

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

68% : Nationally this trade is good for Trump, as he's gaining more among the nonwhites who will be 22% to 25% of the electorate than he's losing among the college-educated whites who'll be a tad more than 30%.
61% : If you compare these margins with my predicted 1.3-point Harris win, Trump carries every one.
60% : An Atlas Intel poll shows Trump up by 2 points.
57% : And an R+2 electorate gives Trump the popular-vote victory by a 0.46-point margin.
53% : Morning Consult has Trump up by 86 with Republicans, while Atlas had him up by 84.
46% : That's what a number of polls suggest, showing Trump leading among all registered voters but trailing among so-called likely voters.
45% : Noted political analyst Nate Silver's model says no; it shows Trump with a 53.8% chance to win the Electoral College with a predicted 2.1-point Harris national-popular-vote margin.
43% : The result is Harris led with Democrats by 89 points (94% to 5%) while Trump led with Republicans by 87 (93-6).
43% : The data are clear: Trump is gaining votes relative to 2020 with blacks and Hispanics while he's losing them among whites with a college degree.
41% : She wins independents by 5 or 6 points in three of the polls I consulted, but she also loses independents to Trump in three other polls.
40% : And it's clear the cumulative weight of the evidence on hand today suggests Trump has the better chance of prevailing than does Harris.
30% : This means Trump will likely have more "wasted votes" -- votes that do not affect whether he wins a state -- than he previously did.

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