How Asia Is Bracing for Donald Trump 2.0

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

68% : Trump "believes the U.S. is better able to leverage its strength and size by working on bilateral ties," says RSIS research fellow Adrian Ang, adding that Trump doesn't want to be "tied down" by multilateral agreements.
62% : When it comes to more traditional allies, experts think Trump, based on his transactional nature, will expect those in Asia to prove their worth.
58% : "I get along with him," Trump has said.
49% : "Joseph Liow, dean of the College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore, tells TIME that unlike in 2017, the fact that Trump already had a first shot at dealing with Asia means that come 2025 he'll be "more prepared."
49% : Trump has said he plans to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10-20% tariff on goods from other countries.
47% : In his first term, Trump engaged with authoritarian leaders like North Korea Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
46% : While the possibility of U.S. removal from multilaterals can leave Asian economies exposed, Ang clarifies that, just like Trump, governments around the world are "more prepared" and "more resilient" against a "more protectionist" Washington.
46% : Experts tell TIME that Trump is willing to engage with Kim again, given that he's spoken of his relationship with the North Korean leader throughout his campaign, claiming it was their personal ties that stopped Pyongyang, which has been steadily nuclearizing, from launching missiles.
45% : When he was asked if he'd use military force, Trump said: "I wouldn't have to, because [Xi] respects me and he knows I'm f -- crazy.""Beijing might actually be able to take Taiwan without too much U.S. interference and if that's the case I fear a greater kind of destabilization across the region," Chen says, noting that allies in the region would be fearful that the U.S. is unilaterally dropping protections for other countries in Asia.
43% : "They [the administration] will try and squeeze as much money as they can out of those allies," says RSIS's Chen, who adds that with Trump as the "final arbiter" of U.S. foreign policy as President, even countries that have established mutual defense treaties with the U.S. will have to convince him that they're deserving of not being forsaken.
43% : Since the election, Japan and South Korea's leaders have expressed a desire to work more closely with Trump, but they've also already been showing that they are willing to pull their weight.
42% : Asian economies that benefited from the previous trade war -- after China moved manufacturing to these countries to avoid American levies -- may suffer this time around, as Trump is expected to balk at U.S.-China trade flows simply being rerouted through other countries.
42% : Last month, Trump said he'd have South Korea -- whom he calls a "money machine" -- pay $10 billion annually to host U.S. troops in the country.
41% : However, Grossman warns that Trump may be "more circumspect," as he reportedly was at times during his first term, about non-economic measures that could harm his relationship with Xi and challenge any potential trade deals.
39% : Trump has suggested he would curtail that support as President.
39% : Trump is also expected to veer away from "values-based" alliances, experts say.
38% : On top of nuclearization, Trump is faced with a North Korea that has been increasingly tied with Russia.
37% : Regional security"I'm not going to start a war, I'm going to stop wars," Trump said during his election victory speech.
31% : Shortly after his inauguration in 2017, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal involving many Asian states, signaling his dislike of multilateralism.
31% : In his first term, Trump signed bipartisan bills against human rights violations towards Hong Kong's democracy protesters and Uyghurs in Xinjiang.
31% : And on Taiwan, the self-governing island which China has long claimed and the U.S. has unofficially supported, RSIS's Chen tells TIME that Trump may choose to avoid U.S. involvement in potential conflict by striking a deal with Beijing.
30% : Last year, Trump said he would junk the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework between the U.S. and 13 other countries, many of which are in Asia, if he wins the election.
29% : In 2018, Trump launched a trade war against China -- placing tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods.
29% : Ben Bland, Asia-Pacific Programme director at London-based think-tank Chatham House, tells TIME that "in Asia, as elsewhere, Trump will be unpredictable because that is both his nature and his modus operandi."
29% : In October, Trump told the Wall Street Journal, "I would say: If you go into Taiwan, I'm sorry to do this, I'm going to tax you" -- referring to tariffs -- "at 150% to 200%."
24% : As President, Trump did not regularly show up at regional summits.
23% : Grossman, like other experts have previously told TIME, says he does not see any sign that Trump will abandon this strategy in his second term.
22% : Trump also questioned the fairness of mutual defense treaties that rely on American military power.
21% : And while Trump has promised to stop wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, Nagy, the Japan-based scholar, says he's unlikely to try to do the same for the ongoing civil war in Myanmar.

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