Iran's regional outreach tested as Turkey plans Syria operation

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

63% :Iran and Turkey are already major trade partners, and Iranians provide a boost to Turkey's tourism and housing sectors as they enjoy visa-free travel and have become top property purchasers in recent years.
55% : On the other hand, Tehran wants to avoid tensions with Ankara where possible as it aims to boost bilateral relations.
51% :Iran has been following a "balanced" foreign policy as part of President Ebrahim Raisi's plans to expand ties with Turkey amid its push for regional diplomacy.
50% : During his trip to Ankara, Amirabdollahian proposed Tehran's offers for clinching a decades-long cooperation roadmap, a document that was initially supposed to be signed during a planned Erdogan visit to Tehran in November 2021, but never materialised.
49% : "A scenario where Iran could get the Turks to limit the scope of a military operation while pushing the YPG closer to Damascus would be a big win for Tehran and the Assad regime," Erim said.
46% : "We understand Turkey's security concerns and talks about the possibility of a special operation in parts of Syrian soil," Amirabdollahian told reporters in a joint news conference with Cavusoglu, which prompted speculation that Iran will not oppose a Turkish operation in northern Syria.
45% : He added that while increased Turkish presence in northern Syria may not be what Tehran and Damascus want, they could leverage it into gains elsewhere.
44% : Iran, he said, would want to keep Turkey neutral and utilise areas of bilateral interest and diplomatic instruments at its disposal to achieve this.
43% :At the same time, however, unconfirmed reports have indicated that Tehran has been talking to its Syrian and non-Syrian allies for a possible military mobilisation in and around Aleppo - which is close to Tal Rifaat, the main target of a potential Turkish operation.
42% :In this vein, he believes Amirabdollahian's comments in Ankara signalled that Iran might to a degree tolerate a new Turkish military operation against the Kurds, but will want to limit its scope through dialogue, something that could also open up an opportunity for Iran to convince the YPG to move closer to the government led by al-Assad.
41% : Tehran, Iran - Iran has upped its diplomatic efforts amid a warning from Turkey to launch a new military operation in Syria - a close regional ally of Tehran - against Kurdish rebels.
41% : "So, I definitely expect to see more understanding and compromise from Iran towards Turkey, especially in areas that are major national security concerns for Ankara like Iraq and Syria," Erim said.
40% : But the two countries' trade volume is a far cry from previous highs of $21bn in 2012, as Iran's oil and gas exports have significantly dwindled due to US sanctions and production limits, issues that Tehran wants to remedy as it seeks to bolster regional ties despite Western pressures.
39% : If Iran doesn't create this space, there will be a clash of interests that Iran's regional rivals will surely take advantage of to draw Turkey closer to them."
38% : The countries that Turkey is normalising with will hope to see Ankara take a harder position against Iran and assume a security provider role amid expectations of less US regional presence in the future, according to Yusuf Erim, Turkey affairs analyst and TRT World's editor-at-large.
37% : PKK is dubbed a "terrorist" group by Turkey as well as the United States and the European Union.
37% : Goldmohammadi said in Turkey's latest push against Kurdish fighters, Iran has found itself in a "circle of unwanted tensions" and prefers to avoid a clash with Ankara.
36% : The bilateral trade reached a low of $1bn in 2020 due to international sanctions on Iran in the wake of Washington walking out of the nuclear deal in 2018.
35% :Iran opposes the planned Turkish move, as along with Russia it is the biggest military backer of the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
35% : According to Vali Golmohammadi, assistant professor of international relations at Tarbiat Modares University in Tehran, Erdogan has in the past decade leveraged foreign policy issues to attract voters ahead of elections.
34% : Iran will try to mediate to help resolve "misunderstandings" between Syria and Turkey, he said.
31% : But on a trip to Damascus on Saturday, Amirabdollahian told al-Assad that Tehran opposes a military solution, and believes only dialogue can resolve the situation.
29% : The visit also came at a time when Turkey said it foiled an alleged Iranian plot to kill Israelis in Istanbul, something Tehran has dismissed as "ridiculous".

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