Is Kamala Harris Crumbling in the Polls? Digging Into the Data

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

69% : With Trump leading in the state, Silver's model shows that he has gained 0.2 points in the state since last week, when his lead stood at 0.5 points.
66% : Polls in the swing states have also looked positive for Trump in recent days.
66% : FiveThirtyEight's tracker shows that Trump currently leads by 0.9 points, 48.2 points to Harris' 47.3, with his lead having reduced from 1.4 points this time last week.
61% : Recent polling from Quinnipiac University showed that Trump is 4 points ahead in Michigan in a head-to-head matchup and 3 points ahead with third-party candidates included.
61% : It also showed that Trump was ahead by 2 points in Wisconsin.
61% : Silver's tracker shows that Trump has gained 0.3 points in Pennsylvania since last week, bringing his vote share to 47.6 percent compared to Harris' 48.6 percent.
61% : Harris was 1.3 points ahead in the state a week ago.RealClearPolitics' tracker also shows that Trump gained 0.3 points in Pennsylvania after he and Harris tied in the state a week ago.
60% : However, polls still show that Trump is ahead.
60% : In Arizona, Trump leads by 1.4 points, according to FiveThirtyEight.
59% : According to Silver's tracker, Trump has gained 0.4 points in the polls in Nevada in the past week, while FiveThirtyEight shows he has gained 0.1 points.
58% : A Fabrizio, Lee and Associates poll put Trump 3 points ahead in the state.
58% : FiveThirtyEight's tracker shows a 0.1 gain for Trump since October 4, when he was ahead of Harris by 0.8 points.
56% : The October poll marked the first time since September 22 that Trump has been shown leading in a national poll.
56% : Meanwhile, of the five polls conducted in the state this week, three, including surveys by InsiderAdvantage, Fabrizio, Lee and Associates, and Quinnipiac University, showed Trump in the lead by between 1 and 4 points.
55% : However, FiveThirtyEight's forecast shows that Harris remains ahead in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, which would give her enough votes to win, while Trump is ahead in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.
55% : MichiganIn Michigan, Trump had the biggest gain this week of 0.9 points, according to Silver's forecast.
54% : All other polls this week, including surveys conducted by Fabrizio, Lee and Associates, Emerson College, Quinnipiac University and Arc Insights, have shown Trump leading by between 1 and 2 points.
54% : Trump is currently leading by 0.7 points in Silver's tracker and 0.9 points in FiveThirtyEight's tracker.
53% : However, while Harris still leads Trump by 2.4 points nationally, according to FiveThirtyEight, recent polling indicates that the gap between the two candidates is narrowing as the election approaches.
52% : Some recent surveys have also given Trump a lead of between 1 and 2 points.
52% : Meanwhile, 3 polls have put Trump ahead by between 1 and 3 points.
51% : However, Silver's tracker also shows that Trump has gained 0.8 points in the state since last week, bringing his vote share up to 47.6 percent and cutting Harris' 2-point lead in half.
48% : An Insider Advantage poll conducted between October 7 and 8 gave Trump a 2-point lead among 800 likely voters.
48% : A Hunt Research poll conducted between October 2 and 7 showed the two candidates were tied when third-party candidates were included, while Trump led by 1 point in a head-to-head matchup.
47% : Since August 8, FiveThirtyEight's election simulator has consistently predicted Harris as the likely winner over Trump.
44% : Meanwhile, a Trafalgar Group poll conducted between October 7 and 8 put Trump in the lead by 1 point.
43% : In the past week, polls conducted by TIPP Insights, Fabrizio, Lee and Associates and Emerson College have put Trump in the lead among likely voters by 1 point.
42% : After Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee in late July, early polling favored the vice president, with some national surveys giving her as much as a 7-point lead over Trump.
41% : PennsylvaniaIn Pennsylvania, the most likely state to decide the election, Harris is currently polling 0.6 points ahead of Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight.
41% : Meanwhile, polls conducted by Emerson College and Fabrizio, Lee and Associates put Trump 1 point ahead.
40% : One poll, conducted by Research Co., put Harris in the lead by 3 points, while an Emerson College poll showed she and Trump were tied.NevadaAccording to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is currently leading in Nevada by 0.8 points, on 47.8 percent to Trump's 47 percent.
40% : Those include polls by Fabrizio, Lee and Associates, where Harris trailed her opponent by 3 points; Emerson College, where Trump was ahead by 2 points; and ActiVote, where Trump was ahead by 1 point among 400 likely voters.
34% : Silver's tracker shows that Trump has made a marginal gain of 0.1 points, with his lead up from 1.2 points since October 4.
23% : This shift marked a turnaround for Trump, who had led Biden in earlier polls.
23% : Emerson College's poll showed Harris and Trump were tied.
18% : While the TIPP Insights poll put Trump ahead among likely voters, it showed that among 1,079 registered voters, Harris was leading by 4 points -- just outside of the survey's margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
15% : Fabrizio, Lee and Associates' poll put Trump in the lead by 5 points, outside of the poll's margin of error.

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