Nate Silver: Don't trust the Trump swing in 2024 presidential election polls, betting markets data

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

53% : Silver is on the record since last week as saying the odds favor Trump -- he laid out his call in a New York Times op-ed -- but he also described it as a "gut instinct" rather than more certain data science.
52% : Wall Street research reports from big banks and billionaire investors including Ken Griffin and Stanley Drunkenmiller have been pointing to recent action in stocks and bonds as a sign that there is greater conviction about a second term for Trump.
48% : Silver told Fortt that his current model shows the odds favoring Trump, who holds a 55% to 45% win probability advantage over Harris.
48% : The betting markets show a much bigger edge for Trump, with major wagers placed on Polymarket, Robinhood jumping into the action, and presidential election contracts surging in popularity.
38% : The polls in recent elections have been off by three to four points "systematically, across the board," Silver said, so recent small swings in polls favoring Trump are "swamped by the uncertainty ... tripping off the noise, basically," he said.

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