Nate Silver's latest projection shows key swing state shifts

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

67% : Overall, Silver's forecast on Monday found that Trump improved by 0.7 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 0.4 percentage points in Michigan over the past week.
64% : While Harris is up 3.2 points on Trump as of Monday, per Silver's tracking, she is only ahead by 1.2 points in Pennsylvania on average.
47% : In comparison, as of Monday, Trump was given a 44.7 percent chance of winning a second term in the White House.
40% : "In 18 out of 100 cases, the Keystone State provides the winning electoral votes for either Harris or Trump.
39% : Trump received a string of positive polls across Pennsylvania and Michigan in the final days of September, the states that Silver says have the biggest chance of tipping the election results this fall.
35% : Similarly, in a poll conducted between September 26 and 29 by the conservative pollster Trafalgar Group, Trump was up by 2 percentage points (48 percent to 45 percent) on Harris among likely voters in Pennsylvania.
34% : In Michigan, a separate poll from AtlasIntel also handed Trump a win, finding him ahead by 3.4 percentage points (50.6 percent to 47.2 percent) among likely voters in a head-to-head race against Harris.

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