One week to go: is Kamala Harris or Donald Trump leading the US presidential race?

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

58% : Three prominent predictors -- FiveThirtyEight, The Economist and Silver Bulletin -- all list Trump as a 53 per cent favourite.
48% : In 2016, Hillary Clinton won far more votes nationally than Trump -- but he won more of the crucial swing states, and therefore the White House.
46% : Newly popular prediction markets favour Trump, at about 60 per cent, but these markets have been influenced by a tiny number of outsize traders, according to data analysed by the FT.
34% : Nationally, Harris has a bare 1 percentage point lead over Trump, according to poll tracking by the Financial Times.
19% : In the final poll, conducted in mid-October, Trump had regained a marginal lead over Harris on the question of who voters trusted more to handle the economy, with the Republican on 44 per cent and the Democratic vice-president on 43 per cent.
14% : In 2016 and 2020, Trump trailed his opponents Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden respectively by wide margins heading into election day, but outperformed national polls in both instances.

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