Robinhood Launches Presidential Election Betting Market Allowing Users To Wager On Harris And Trump

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

68% : So if the Robinhood market opens with a 62% chance of a Trump win, that means that users could buy Trump contracts at $0.62 apiece and Harris contracts at $0.38, scoring $1 a pop if their pick becomes president, netting a roughly 60% return on investment if Trump wins and 160% if Harris does.
51% : That's higher than the poll-based prediction models like FiveThirtyEight's, which gives Trump a 54% chance at victory, and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, which prices Trump at 52.9%.
47% : Election betting has become a major talking point this presidential election, earning a shoutout from Trump earlier this month, though the regulator Commodity Futures Trading Commission has expressed concerns the wagers may "threaten election integrity" as voters may be wrongly incentivized to support a certain candidate due to their bets, though a federal court recently ruled against the CFTC in a case against Kalshi.

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