The Dems' November Surprise

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

58% : Both of these polls are in line with recent polling in Iowa, which Trump won by just over eight points in 2020 and more than nine points in 2016.
53% : The race had seemed to settle in during the past 10 days or so, with Trump leading narrowly nationally and in the battleground states.
50% : That would be AtlasIntel, whose final poll for the 2024 campaign shows Trump ahead nationally 49% to 47.2%.
45% : Because on the same day, Saturday, the well-regarded Emerson College polling firm released its own poll of the Iowa race, which showed Trump comfortably ahead of Harris, 53-43.
41% : Somebody's lying, and we'll find out who when Trump wins Iowa comfortably on Tuesday.
38% : As the Register reports, "The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.
32% : But the relative sliver of late deciders -- those who somehow can't seem to figure out whether they prefer the proven America First leadership of Trump or the miserably failed leftism of Harris -- might well be influenced by the bandwagon effect noted by our Mark Alexander way back in 2008: "the human tendency of those who do not have a strong ideological foundation to aspire to the side perceived to be in the majority.
11% : "The purportedly reputable poll is, in fact, an extreme outlier -- somewhat akin to, although not as severe as, the infamous 2020 Washington Post-ABC News poll that showed Joe Biden leading Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin just days before the election in a state that Biden "won" by half a point.
9% : This means that even if we're to believe Selzer's poll, Harris's three-point lead over Trump is within the poll's margin of error, essentially a tie.

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