Three things that could win or lose the most important US presidential debate in years

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

60% : Still, the Harris campaign may be hoping Trump will overstep, giving Ms Harris an opening to unleash her skills as a calm former prosecutor.
49% : Trump claims his second administration would be "great for women and their reproductive rights" but a significant polling edge for Ms Harris among women voters suggests they don't believe him.
48% : Trump will also look to make hay of the migrant crisis on the border, pinning as much of it on Ms Harris as possible.
42% : If Ms Harris has the border Trump has reproductive rights as the issue he cannot easily get around; after all, it was his Supreme Court appointees who propelled the court to over turn 50 years of federal abortion guarantees, producing a real and existential crisis for millions of women.
41% : It's not clear that Trump, who has been at the centre of US politics for eight years, is willing or even able to change his approach, which has traditionally been heavy on attack and generating political entertainment.
33% : Trump will also attempt to tie Ms Harris to "Bidenomics" and the inflation that saw the cost of living rise by 20 per cent over four years.
31% : In recent weeks, Trump has been trying to shift his position, saying he supported government funding for IVF therapies and supporting and but later opposing an effort to extend abortion guarantees beyond six weeks in Florida.
29% : Trump has repeatedly urged Republicans to prioritise winning elections, even if it means softening their position on abortion.
21% : "At the same time, Trump showed some restraint in his debate with Mr Biden in July, perhaps sensing that it would not serve him well to go hard on the ailing Democrat.
17% : Trump was widely criticised for his overbearing manner with Hillary Clinton in 2016, though he went on to win that election.
16% : Trump and his allies will dismiss some of these as socialist from a candidate they called "Comrade Kamala".

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