Trump is a felon. Here's why that could matter in the 2024 race

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

51% : A MONUMENTOUS STAT30%That's the percentage of Trump supporters in a December Fox News poll that agreed "things in the U.S. are so far off track that we need a president willing to break some rules and laws to set things right.
49% : But we do often see bigger shifts when pollsters have tested the matchups before and after a hypothetical conviction, suggesting a bigger impact:* A Marquette University Law School poll last week showed Trump leading President Biden by four points.
46% : Let's briefly run through the most recent polling data:* An ABC News/Ipsos poll last month showed that 20% of Trump supporters said that a conviction in the Manhattan case would at least cause them to "reconsider," but just 4% said they would change their vote.
45% : THE BIG MOMENTA Manhattan jury on Thursday convicted former president Donald Trump of all 34 counts of falsifying business records.
45% : So the question today is not whether the vast majority of Trump supporters will stand by him (they will)
32% : If Trump is not incarcerated, that could send a signal to those who might waver that this wasn't that big of a deal to begin with.
31% : But giving one pause is not the same as ditching Trump - far from it.
30% : * Earlier polling has shown the margins shifting toward Biden by between 5 and 14 points if Trump were convicted in one of his cases.
28% : AdvertisementThese polls would suggest that at least some Trump supporters who say they would merely "reconsider" would be inclined to desert Trump, too, if forced to choose.
28% : Given those voters will likely gravitate toward either major-party candidate - third-party candidates tend to fade over time - but haven't opted for Trump yet, Thursday's verdict could factor into their votes.
27% : AdvertisementThat would suggest a very muted impact among those already backing Trump - with him losing about 2% of voters overall if it held.
26% : But he trailed by four points among the half-sample that was asked how they would vote if Trump were convicted in the Manhattan case - an eight-point shift, on the margins (i.e. Trump +4 to Biden +4).
26% : (Trump will be sentenced on July 11.)
22% : Donald Trump became the first former president to be convicted of felony crimes as a New York jury found him guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through hush money payments to a porn actor who said the two had sex.
22% : The convictions are felonies because the jury found Trump falsified the records to try to illegally influence the 2016 presidential election, which he narrowly won over Hillary Clinton.
22% : Copy the Story Link Related Headlines Trump becomes first former U.S. president convicted of felony crimes Trump blasts 'rigged, disgraceful' trial after jury finds him guilty Challenges await Trump jurors after 'surreal experience'Invalid username/password.
13% : * A Reuters/Ipsos poll last month showed Biden adding just two points to his margin if Trump is convicted of a crime, but six points if Trump is incarcerated as a result.

*Our bias meter rating uses data science including sentiment analysis, machine learning and our proprietary algorithm for determining biases in news articles. Bias scores are on a scale of -100% to 100% with higher negative scores being more liberal and higher positive scores being more conservative, and 0% being neutral. The rating is an independent analysis and is not affiliated nor sponsored by the news source or any other organization.