Trump is favored, but Biden can still win this election

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

72% : Looking at the forecasting modelsFiguring out how to account for all this information (or lack thereof) to better understand the state of the race between Biden and Trump can be a challenge.
62% : I think it's totally fair to say that Trump is the favorite and that Biden has his work cut out for him.
56% : Trump is favored, but Biden can still win this electionAnalysis by Harry Enten, CNNJuly 12, 2024 at 11:30 PMIf you follow my work, you know that I've tended to be pessimistic about President Joe Biden's chances of reelection.
52% : When I worked at FiveThirtyEight - my then-boss Nate Silver now has a model that looks similar to the current average - we gave Trump about a 30% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton on the eve of the 2016 election.
46% : What Biden does have that Trump didn't in 2016 is time.
34% : Per the average forecasting model, Biden wins about 30% of the time against Trump.
25% : Biden's Electoral College path does seem to be narrower than Trump's was in 2016.
21% : As I wrote at the time, Trump was a "normal polling error behind Clinton" - the idea being that the polls were close enough that Trump could win if the polling was off by a normal amount.
19% : There is also data to suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris would be a stronger Democratic nominee against Trump than Biden.
11% : An NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll out Friday morning even put the race at 50% for Biden to 48% for Trump (a result within the margin of error).

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