VT History (2012) Prelude to Current Crisis in Middle East - Veterans Today | Military Foreign Affairs Policy Journal for Clandestine Services

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

54% : This is their announcement, from Tehran, moments ago:OCTOBER 2, 2012
53% : US Army experts on the region indicate that Iran has a "superhighway direct to Baku," the capitol of Azerbaijan and keystone to the massive Baku/Ceyhan pipeline.
53% : A POTENTIAL LEADER IN THE ISLAMIC WORLD HAS CLEARLY TAKEN A "BACK SEAT" TO IRAN, EGYPT, PAKISTAN AND INDONESIA.
53% : "With these drones, (Israel) can indirectly watch what's happening in Iran, while we protect our borders," legislator Musabayov said - a view shared by Azeri former military sources.
52% : The significance of the pipeline is great in that, even if Iran has no rationale to cut oil supplies through the Straits of Hormuz, it could easily gain control of 5% of the world's oil output and put all Caspian Basin oil off the market without in any way interfering with free transit of sea-lanes.
50% : The country, home to nine million people whose language is close to Turkish and who mostly share the Shi'ite Muslim faith of Iran, has four ex-Soviet air bases that could be suitable for Israeli jets, the Azeri sources said.
48% : That Aliyev, an autocratic ally of Western governments and oil firms, has become a rare Muslim friend of the Jewish state - and an object of scorn in Tehran -
48% : A thousand miles separates Tehran and Tel Aviv, putting much of Iran beyond the normal ranges of Israel's U.S.-made F-16 bombers and their F-15 escorts.
47% : THAT ALIYEV, AN AUTOCRATIC ALLY OF WESTERN GOVERNMENTS AND OIL FIRMS, HAS BECOME A RARE MUSLIM FRIEND OF THE JEWISH STATE - AND AN OBJECT OF SCORN IN TEHRAN - IS NO SECRET; A $1.6-BILLION ARMS DEAL INVOLVING DOZENS OF ISRAELI DRONES, AND ISRAEL'S THIRST FOR AZERBAIJAN'S CASPIAN SEA CRUDE, ARE WELL DOCUMENTED.
46% : Though denying direct knowledge of current military thinking on Iran, the Israeli said one possibility might be "landing a refueling plane there, made to look like a civilian airliner, so it could later take off to rendezvous mid-air with IAF jets".
45% : The unknown factor is Azerbaijan's ability to withstand a massive and immediate ground assault from Iran.
45% : The source said Iran had been a main topic of talks in April with Israel's Soviet-born foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman.
45% : Relations have long been strained between the former Soviet state and Iran, which is home to twice as many ethnic Azeris as Azerbaijan itself.
44% : The map for that attack by US troops from Iran is below:
44% : At that time, Israeli planes were training in Turkey on terrain meant to simulate Iran.
44% : TURKEY HAD ALLOWED ISRAEL TO USE THEIR AIR SPACE FOR TRAINING BECAUSE THEIR TERRAIN CLOSELY RESEMBLED AREAS OF IRAN THAT ISRAEL PLANNED TO ATTACK.
44% : Yet despite official denials by Azerbaijan and Israel, two Azeri former military officers with links to serving personnel and two Russian intelligence sources all told Reuters that Azerbaijan and Israel have been looking at how Azeri bases and intelligence could serve in a possible strike on Iran.
43% : He was echoing similar denials issued in Baku and from Israel when the journal Foreign Policy quoted U.S. officials in March voicing alarm that Azeri-Israeli action could thwart U.S. diplomacy toward Iran and across the Caucasus.
42% : ALL TOLD REUTERS THAT AZERBAIJAN AND ISRAEL HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT HOW AZERI BASES AND INTELLIGENCE COULD SERVE IN A POSSIBLE STRIKE ON IRAN.
42% : ALL TOLD REUTERS THAT AZERBAIJAN AND ISRAEL HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT HOW AZERI BASES AND INTELLIGENCE COULD SERVE IN A POSSIBLE STRIKE ON IRAN.
42% : That he would risk the wrath of his powerful neighbor by helping wage war on Iran is, however, something his aides flatly deny; wider consequences would also be hard to calculate from military action in a region where Azerbaijan's "frozen" conflict with Armenia is just one of many elements of volatility and where major powers from Turkey, Iran and Russia to the United States, western Europe and even China all jockey for influence.
38% : Additional VT staff were, while at the Pentagon, responsible for drawing up the war plans, not just for the initial invasion of Iran but the American invasion of Azerbaijan, slated for 2008, as part of a Bush administration military takeover of the entire Caspian Basin.
37% : Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exudes impatience, saying Tehran is barely a year from a "red line" for atomic capacity.
37% : We're watching what Iran does closely," said a U.S. intelligence officer involved in assessing the consequences of a potential Israeli strike on Iran.
36% : PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU EXUDES IMPATIENCE, SAYING TEHRAN IS BARELY
36% : SHOULD THEY CHOOSE TO PARTICIPATE IN AN UNPROVOKED ATTACK ON IRAN.
36% : Nonetheless, Rasim Musabayov, an independent Azeri lawmaker and a member of parliament's foreign affairs committee, said that, while he had no definitive information, he understood that Azerbaijan would probably feature in any Israeli plans against Iran, at least as a contingency for refueling its attack force:
36% : Israeli officials dismiss talk of Azeri collaboration in any attack on Iran but decline public comment on specific details.
36% : Defending against Iran is part of public debate in Baku.
35% : ISRAEL, WHOSE ARMS AGREEMENTS WITH TURKEY MOUNTED TO NEARLY 5 BILLION DOLLARS OVER A PERIOD OF YEARS, HAD BEEN TRAINING PILOTS IN TURKEY FOR BOMBING ATTACKS ON IRAN.
35% : However, Israel's confrontation with Iran may turn out, the arms build-up in Azerbaijan, including recent Israeli upgrades for its Soviet T-72 tanks, may have consequences for the wider region and for the stand-off with Armenia - consequences that would trouble all the powers with stakes in the Caspian region.
34% : Press TV just announced that Azerbaijan has assured Iran no Israeli attack would occur from their territory.
34% : "A WEEK AGO,ISRAEL LEAKED TO THE PRESS THAT THEY HAD PERMISSION FROM SAUDI ARABIA TO USE THEIR AIR SPACE TO ATTACK IRAN.
33% : An investigation done by independent intelligence organizations made up of former CIA, Army Intelligence and FBI personnel as published on June 18, 2010, discovered a plot between Israel, Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan to attack Iran.
33% : Having also invested in Azerbaijan's defenses and facilities used by U.S. forces in transit to Afghanistan, Washington also seems unlikely to cheer Aliyev joining any action against Iran.
33% : "No third country can use Azerbaijan to perpetrate an attack on Iran.
31% : Today, Azerbaijan announced it would allow Israeli planes to use their air bases to attack Iran.
31% : Tehran beams an Azeri-language television channel over the border which portrays Aliyev as a puppet of Israel and the West, as well as highlighting corruption in Baku.
29% : "Israel has a problem in that if it is going to bomb Iran, its nuclear sites, it lacks refueling," Musabayov told Reuters.
25% : Netanyahu's "red line" speech to the United Nations last week was seen by many in Israel as making any strike on Iran unlikely - for at least a few months.
22% : The administration of U.S. President Barack Obama has made clear it does not welcome Israel's occasional talk of war and that it prefers diplomacy and economic sanctions to deflect an Iranian nuclear program that Tehran denies has military uses.

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