What to expect on Election Day: history could be made, or we're in for a long wait (and plenty of conspiracies)

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

80% : Possibility 2: Harris makes historyIt is entirely possible Harris makes history - not only by beating Trump, but by becoming the first woman and woman of colour to win the US presidency.
55% : If Trump does win, it could be via a similar path to the one he took in 2016 - by once again sundering the "blue wall" and winning the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
55% : Like Trump, if Harris does win, it will likely be through one or more of the battleground states - in particular, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
51% : By baselessly declaring victory in 2020 on the early "red mirage" tallies in key states before all the votes were counted, Trump was able to create what Bannon described as a "firestorm" - one that eventually led to the insurrection of January 6 2021.
46% : The rest of the world would have to reorient itself, once again, around Trump.
46% : Researchers found that counties won by Biden counted more slowly, on average, than those won by Trump - hence the so-called "blue shift".
45% : Possibility 1: the return of TrumpTrump may make history and win back the White House.
42% : A big question: can she win by enough to head off resistance by Trump and the movement behind him?
41% : After two assassination attempts on Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden's dramatic decision to leave the race in August, it is entirely possible this election will throw up more big surprises.
37% : Trump, meanwhile, lied again this week when he said "these elections have to be, they have to be decided by 9 o'clock, 10 o'clock, 11 o'clock on Tuesday night" - laying the groundwork for further election conspiracies.
24% : Trump and his surrogates like Steve Bannon, however, have exploited the differing times it takes to count votes to peddle baseless conspiracy theories, undermining Americans' faith in their own democracy, and to incite unrest.
23% : In the 2020 presidential election, Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Georgia by 0.25%, which triggered a full hand recount of the votes.
15% : A second Trump administration would be very different from the first - the movement behind Trump is more organised, focused and cognisant of the mistakes of the first Trump White House.

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