Why Pennsylvania will decide the next president

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

54% : Trump carried North Carolina in 2016 and 2020.
47% : "Harris's inability to improve in the polls was particularly cemented by an early October poll showing Trump ahead by 4 points in the state -- the highest lead for either candidate in almost a month," its analysis noted.
45% : Trump has held more rallies in Pennsylvania than any other state and has spent more of his advertising budget there than in any other battleground.
44% : Decision Desk HQ has Harris and Trump tied in assessed probability to win Pennsylvania, though Harris has a 1-point lead in the state's polling average.
43% : Decision Desk HQ notes that Harris has trailed Trump in the polling averages of North Carolina and Georgia.
42% : If Trump won Michigan or Wisconsin, however, and held on to Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, where he is leading in the polls, he would have enough electoral votes to win back the White House.
41% : He said Trump has a "loyal base" and "the assumption is that base is going to stick with him and turn out for him.""The Harris campaign isn't taking any votes for granted.
40% : Harris maintains a slight probabilistic advantage over Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin but has lost some ground recently in those states' polling averages.
34% : Harris and Trump conceivably have other pathways to winning the White House if they fail to carry Pennsylvania, but those alternate scenarios would entail winning states where they are now viewed as underdogs.
32% : Given Michigan's and Wisconsin's history of voting in alignment with Pennsylvania, and its history of voting for Democrats in recent election cycles, pollsters and statisticians say it's unlikely that Trump would lose Pennsylvania but manage to win either Michigan or Wisconsin.
28% : Harris announced her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), at an event in Philadelphia and spent five days in Pittsburgh preparing for her only debate against Trump, which was also held in Philadelphia.

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