Betting the odds on Trump's Supreme Court case

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

50% : Since courts are supposed to resolve cases on non-constitutional grounds whenever possible, expect even the liberal wing of the court to thoroughly consider this option.10-1 odds: Reversal with no majority decisionIn this scenario, five Supreme Court justices vote to overturn the Colorado result but can't agree on why.
45% : However, presidential qualifications do seem to be a uniquely national question that should not be decided in piecemeal, probably contradictory, decisions in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.50-1 odds: Trump didn't engage in insurrectionThis would be a very, very tough argument for the Supreme Court to adopt, assuming that it holds the events of Jan. 6 amounted to insurrection.
44% : Expect a Supreme Court decision on due process grounds to be the opening gun for a flurry of lawsuits aimed at disqualifying Trump from the general election ballot.5-1 odds: AffirmIf this were a less unique case, the odds on affirming would be much higher because the Supreme Court has limited scope for reviewing lower court decisions, especially state court decisions.
38% : Affirming this decision would result in lawsuits in all 50 states and the District of Columbia designed to remove Donald Trump from the ballot.8-1 odds: No insurrectionComing up with a legal definition of "insurrection" and holding that the events of Jan. 6, 2021, did not qualify is probably the easiest, least messy way for the Supreme Court to make the whole problem disappear.
37% : But if Trump is elected president, the court would still have to issue a ruling.
32% : 3-1 odds: Reversal on due process groundsThe most likely outcome is that the Supreme Court will overturn the Colorado decision on the grounds that the procedure used to determine whether Trump is disqualified under Section 3 was constitutionally inadequate.
30% : If Trump is not elected president, the Supreme Court could dodge the question entirely by dismissing the case as moot.
24% : When the Colorado Supreme Court ejected Donald Trump from the state's Republican primary ballot next year, it set off what will be the biggest political story in the first quarter of 2024.
17% : And if that ruling is that Trump is ineligible under Section 3, it would spark the biggest constitutional crisis in American history.25-1 odds: Holding that the presidency is not covered by Section 3This outcome would be rated lower had the Colorado district court not adopted it when it originally ruled that Trump could remain on the primary ballot.

*Our bias meter rating uses data science including sentiment analysis, machine learning and our proprietary algorithm for determining biases in news articles. Bias scores are on a scale of -100% to 100% with higher negative scores being more liberal and higher positive scores being more conservative, and 0% being neutral. The rating is an independent analysis and is not affiliated nor sponsored by the news source or any other organization.