For Now at Least, Trump Is Succeeding While His Opponents Fail

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

70% : Trump will enter the White House, as Democrats note, five months older than Biden was four years ago, and his astonishing robustness and resilience on the campaign trail may not last.
55% : Shunned eight years ago by his presidential predecessors, by Wall Street and by incumbent leaders in just about every establishment institution, Trump will be inaugurated this time with Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg on the podium.
54% : In November 2024, Trump won 46% in these supposedly safe Democratic states, similar to what Harris won in the target state of Arizona.
52% : But for the moment, Trump is succeeding, and his opponents are failing.
51% : Behind the narrowness of his 49.9%-48.4% popular vote margin is polling evidence that 2024 nonvoters, especially among young Hispanic and black people, have soured on Democrats and trended halfway toward Trump Republicans -- and could go the full way if Trump seems successful.
46% : " Trump secured the reelection of House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., in the narrowly divided House by limiting Republicans' dissenting votes to exactly one.
45% : And the schedule of upcoming contests looks mildly favorable to Trump and Republicans.
43% : In the 2026 Senate elections, Democrats are defending three incumbents in target states that Trump carried and two more in closer-than-expected Virginia and New Hampshire.
36% : Redistricting, which was based on 2012-20 results, no longer favors Republicans, but they have new targets in heavily Hispanic and Asian districts that trended heavily toward Trump in 2024.
25% : In the excruciatingly closely divided House of Representatives, only three Republican incumbents represent districts carried by Harris, while 13 Democrats represent districts carried by Trump.
24% : This time, Trump won the popular vote with a percentage that, rounded off, is identical to those of former Presidents Jimmy Carter, John F. Kennedy, and Harry Truman.
21% : If that success continues -- a big "if" -- Trump could establish an enduring political template as, I have argued, former Presidents Dwight Eisenhower and Bill Clinton did before him.

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