How's Trump's conviction will -- and won't -- impact his 2024 chances

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

73% : The race between Trump and Biden was very close before Trump's conviction.
53% : Compensating for that problem, what pollsters refer to as non-response bias, takes time and is tricky.
40% : But in a general election, a criminal conviction is still a problem, even for Trump.
37% : In this case, Democrats likely will be enthusiastic and more likely to respond while Trump supporters may refuse to participate.
37% : Perhaps voters upset over inflation or Biden's age will drift back to Trump over time.
36% : Other polls found similar results: Most Americans said they believed Trump had violated the law, but most also thought he would get away with it -- after all, he always has.
33% : This qualifies: Most voters were not expecting Trump to be convicted.
30% : That's doubly true with Trump, who inspires deep loyalty from his supporters and intense loathing from his foes.
28% : In the weeks leading up to Trump's New York trial, a lot of polls asked voters how they would respond if Trump were convicted.
27% : Now, after a New York jury found Trump guilty on 34 counts connected to the payment of hush money to a porn actor, we're about to find out.
27% : In the primaries, Trump benefited from his criminal indictments because they rallied his supporters and shielded him from criticism by rival candidates.
26% : The most recent New York Times/Sienna College poll, for example, found that only 35% of voters in battleground states expected Trump to be convicted.
25% : They suggest that a conviction will cause Trump to lose some support -- maybe enough to matter in a close race -- but that voters don't necessarily switch over to siding with Biden.
20% : Ever since Trump first entered electoral politics almost nine years ago, some of his ardent opponents have believed that a single event -- the "Access Hollywood" tape, the Mueller investigation, the chaotic response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a criminal case -- would disqualify Trump in the minds of most voters.

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