Initial 2026 House race ratings show more Republicans in Toss-up seats - Roll Call

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

65% : Republicans gained 63 seats that cycle in response to President Barack Obama's first years in office and perceived Democratic overreach with the Affordable Care Act.
52% : Republicans already have the challenge next year of turning out Trump voters when Trump isn't on the ballot.
41% : GOP lawmakers are currently confident they are acting well within a mandate voters gave their party in 2024, but there could be increased tensions between Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill later in the cycle.
38% : House Republicans are poised to take the brunt of voter dissatisfaction if the president's policies don't go well, because Trump doesn't have to face voters in 2026.
36% : Support for Trump's policies on government efficiency, tariffs and foreign policy will wane if his actions start to hurt people's everyday lives.
18% : That makeup aligns with the high correlation between presidential results and House outcomes and the fact that there are 13 Democrats who represent districts where President Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris and just three Republicans who represent districts where Harris beat Trump.

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