Trump's big Mike Johnson decision

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

55% : Trump is sitting back and watching the coverage, I'm told, mulling whether it's worth it to defenestrate another speaker.
52% : What's more, Trump is eager to start moving on his legislative agenda as soon as he's inaugurated, hoping to sign a border bill within 30 days.
49% : In several conversations with Johnson after the election -- as reported previously in Playbook -- Trump mentioned his interest in quickly raising the debt ceiling to clean the slate for 2025.
48% : Multiple Republicans on the Hill said the speaker's team let the incoming administration know exactly what would be in the bill -- including pay raises for members, transferring ownership of Washington's RFK Stadium and restricting investments in China -- though they acknowledged that didn't necessarily mean Trump himself knew.
44% : Those close to Trump don't expect the president-elect to outright call for Johnson to go, though that could still happen.
36% : Trump decided to stay out of it, and it passed 366-34 -- with the help of 196 Democrats.
36% : So Trump has decided to keep his powder dry as things play out -- intentionally so, I'm told.
33% : And, as of this weekend, it's an open question at Mar-a-Lago about whether Trump will lift a finger to help him.
32% : After the initial deal collapsed and Johnson agreed to add the debt ceiling to a Plan B proposal, Trump officials claim that Johnson assured them the votes would be there to get it over the finish line.
32% : "The reality is this: Trump now sees him as waffling and weak.
29% : Trump decided at that point to endorse the bill and pressure Republicans to fall in line.
28% : The way Hill Republicans see it, Trump never explicitly endorsed attaching the debt ceiling bill to the year-end spending package until two days before the shutdown deadline.
24% : But Republicans tell me there's no way Johnson will win the gavel again without Trump not only endorsing him but actively whipping for him.
24% : Trump insiders firmly pushed back, arguing that while Johnson's team may have provided some "bullet points" and toplines, they didn't get a full picture of the deal in advance.
23% : Johnson could have recovered some favor with the president had he taken one final step, they say: Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance both made clear they'd be fine allowing a holiday-season shutdown to try to force Democrats into swallowing a debt ceiling deal.
20% : If Trump -- never shy about what he wants -- was that serious about raising the borrowing limit in the lame duck, they argue, wouldn't he have been tweeting about it for weeks, publicly demanding lawmakers act?Another Trump official bristled at that suggestion, arguing that it's not Trump's job to get into the minutiae of legislative strategy: "He said, 'Deal with the debt ceiling prior to me coming into office.' ...
17% : Trump, I'm told, is aware that an ugly, protracted speakership battle could stall momentum for his agenda, leaving the House in a state of paralysis -- just as it did after Kevin McCarthy's ouster last year.
15% : This much became clear to me: Not only is Trump unhappy with the funding deal, he's unhappy with Johnson, too.
13% : What seems more likely is that, should Trump decide he'd prefer a different partner leading the House, he simply lets Johnson flail as he struggles to land 218 votes.
7% : "The president is upset -- he wanted the debt ceiling dealt with," said one Trump insider, who like others was granted anonymity to speak candidly about Trump and Johnson.
6% : When that deal failed spectacularly, with 38 Republicans voting against it, Trump's team was floored -- and felt Johnson had made Trump look foolish for weighing in.

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