What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025 | Timothy Garton Ash

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

59% : Necessary reforms would stall, and hence also progress towards EU membership.
55% : In five years, the country joins the EU, and then, under a new US administration, starts the process of entering Nato.
53% : New possibilities for Russian disinformation and political destabilisation would emerge.
53% : In the Moldovan EU referendum, about 9% of the votes were directly bought by Russia, according to the president, Maia Sandu.
51% : In polling the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has shared with me in advance, Ukrainians are asked if to end the war they could (albeit with difficulty) accept the combination of economic reconstruction and EU and Nato membership for the current territory.
48% : Suppose the roughly four-fifths of Ukrainian territory still controlled by Kyiv gets military commitments from the west strong enough to deter any further Russian advances, secure large-scale investment in economic reconstruction, encourage Ukrainians to return from abroad to rebuild their country, and allow for stable, pro-European politics and reform.
48% : The more countries - and possibly non-state actors - acquire nuclear weapons, the more certain it is that one day they will be used.
36% : However, to get to this outcome with Donald Trump in the White House would require a European coalition-of-the-willing to make security commitments of a size and boldness not seen so far.

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