Observations on Iran's Plot to Kill John Bolton

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

51% : Iran's capabilities, and that of its close ally the Lebanese Hezbollah, are far greater outside the United States, and Iran has a network in numerous countries that it could use to strike U.S. facilities and personnel.
44% : It is possible, of course, that Iran has more extensive capabilities for acting in the United States that it simply chose to reserve for another contingency, such as a response to U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities.
43% : The foiled plot demonstrates the regime's willingness to escalate, undermining hopes that Tehran is eager to prevent the security situation in the region from getting out of hand.
42% : If that nightmare scenario happens, the administration would need to teach Iran the price of targeting U.S. figures is too high while avoiding a spiral of retaliation -- a difficult balance even in the best of times.
41% : If, against the odds, a deal is signed, there is little reason to expect that Iran would become more cautious in its use of terrorism.
39% : I, along with many Iran experts, worried that the killing of such a high-profile figure would lead to an enduring grievance in Iran.
37% : The IRGC's willingness to escalate suggests that Iran is putting revenge ahead of other goals, including restoring the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal.
37% : At worse, it suggests Iran largely sees negotiations as an empty exercise and is unwilling to sacrifice other goals to achieve success.
32% : Hopes that Iran would settle for a quick, symbolic response such as firing rockets at U.S. forces in Iraq appear misplaced.
32% : Even as the United States tries to disrupt the plots and deter Iran from such dangerous escalations in the future, the Biden administration should be prepared to respond in case one of them succeeds.

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