Trump is favored, but Biden can still win this election

Contributing sentiments towards policy:

72% : Looking at the forecasting models Figuring out how to account for all this information (or lack thereof) to better understand the state of the race between Biden and Trump can be a challenge.
62% : I think it's totally fair to say that Trump is the favorite and that Biden has his work cut out for him.
56% : Trump is favored, but Biden can still win this election Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN July 12, 2024 at 11:30 PM If you follow my work, you know that I've tended to be pessimistic about President Joe Biden's chances of reelection.
52% : When I worked at FiveThirtyEight - my then-boss Nate Silver now has a model that looks similar to the current average - we gave Trump about a 30% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton on the eve of the 2016 election.
46% : What Biden does have that Trump didn't in 2016 is time.
34% : Per the average forecasting model, Biden wins about 30% of the time against Trump.
25% : Biden's Electoral College path does seem to be narrower than Trump's was in 2016.
21% : As I wrote at the time, Trump was a "normal polling error behind Clinton" - the idea being that the polls were close enough that Trump could win if the polling was off by a normal amount.
19% : There is also data to suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris would be a stronger Democratic nominee against Trump than Biden.
11% : An NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll out Friday morning even put the race at 50% for Biden to 48% for Trump (a result within the margin of error).

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